Florida Football vs. FSU: Final Odds and Predictions

The regular season finale is just around the corner for Florida Football and lo and behold, it means another matchup with the Neighbors to the West. However, unlike the last two seasons, Florida enters the game as the favorite as FSU may be the worst Power Four team in America.

Very few people on Earth will predict a catastrophe. So what does Florida need to do to ensure there isn’t one in Tallahassee?

You can pick almost any category, and FSU is probably terrible at it. They can’t run the ball, they can’t throw or catch the ball, they can’t stop teams from throwing the ball at them, they can’t tackle, they can barely get close enough to a QB to get some air , and you can’t win.

Falling into obscurity after going 13-1 last season, a top-ten preseason finish this year, should be the subject of a 30-30 ESPN rating.

This is the eighth time Billy Napier has been a double-digit favorite in Florida. He is 6-1 in those games, with his only loss coming against Vanderbilt in 2022.

But given the spread in those games, he’s just 1-6 and has struggled to maintain dominance against teams Florida is heavily favored against (USF, Missouri, UNC Charlotte, etc.).

If Florida comes out as enthusiastic as we saw against LSU and Ole Miss, Napier could use his most basic offense and Florida probably still has a chance to win by more than 20 points.

FSU really is that bad.

But if Lagway misses a few deep throws early on or Florida gets stuffed on a few third-and-1 attempts, there’s a chance for FSU to linger longer in a rivalry game than Florida fans would like.

Ultimately, Florida’s defense has stiffened to a level that should produce enough three-and-out shots to force FSU’s defense back on the field unless FSU pulls a rabbit out of the hat on offense.

Over time this is likely to wear them down, and for this reason we predict: