Indiana Football vs. Purdue Preview, Old Oaken Bucket Prediction

BLOOMINGTON — IU football and Purdue are going in opposite directions.

The Hoosiers (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten) are deep in the playoff race, while the Boilermakers (1-10, 0-8) are one loss away from going winless in the conference for the second time in three games remain for decades.

This season will see the biggest difference in victory between the country rivals – both began playing football in the 19th century – regardless of the result on Saturday.

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti has every reason to add insult to injury by increasing the score this weekend.

Unless events unfold in the Big Ten this weekend as a complete surprise, this will be the Hoosiers’ last chance to impress the College Football Playoff committee, and they will want to show that they can put up with the shaky performances against Michigan and Ohio State broke up.

Indiana also wants the final result to be as lopsided as the games Purdue has played against the rest of the Big Ten playoff contenders. The Boilermakers are one of only two teams (Michigan State) that have played Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana this season.

The Boilermakers have been outscored in their first three games by a combined score of 119-10.

IU Football vs. Purdue: Channel, Betting Odds

When: Saturday, November 30th at 7 p.m
Where: Memorial Stadium (52,626), Bloomington, Indiana
TV: FS1
Line: Indiana -29
Series: Purdue leads 77-42-6
Last meeting: Purdue defeated. Indiana, 35-31, on November 25, 2023

IU football players to watch vs. Purdue

Indiana’s offensive line: Indiana’s offensive line is under the microscope as it tries to correct its worst performance of the season. The Hoosiers gave up five sacks to Ohio State, with much of that pressure coming through in the second quarter.

The offense never recovered after that.

While Indiana has struggled with more talented defensive players in recent weeks, Cignetti said the offensive line’s woes are mostly related to “missed assignments and poor technique,” which he described as mental mistakes from day one. He said the offense has no chance of getting back into the rhythm it had earlier in the year if these issues aren’t sorted out.

The Hoosiers lost a key offensive lineman when starting left guard Drew Evans suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury leading up to the Michigan game, but his replacement, Tyler Stephens, has been practicing with the first-team offense for nearly four weeks.

They should not regress as they have more practice time together.

Mikail Kamara, DE: Kamara was held without a single quarterback pressure against Ohio State.

It was only the third time in his career (34 games).

Thanks to a string of six straight games with five or more pressures, Kamara led the FBS in quarterback pressures for most of November, but fell to third after the loss. That won’t bother him as much as the fact that Ohio State University quarterback Will Howard had far too easy a time getting the ball downfield last weekend.

The former James Madison defensive back will look for a strong performance against an offensive line that has given up 30 sacks and 84 quarterback pressures this season, according to Pro Football Focus. For comparison, IU’s starting offensive line gave up 46 quarterback pressures.

Judges Ellison and Ty Son Lawton, RB: Indiana’s starting running back duo could alleviate some of the pass protection woes by breaking up some explosive runs early in the game on Saturday.

The Hoosiers’ rushing attack has been dormant in recent weeks, except for a brief stretch in the fourth quarter against Ohio State when the game was already out of reach.

Ellison told reporters that the running game provided a major boost to the offense after its win against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers had not allowed a run of 30 yards or more or a rushing touchdown before coming to Bloomington. The Wake Forest transfer did both on IU’s first possession, and the Hoosiers went on to put up 215 rushing yards (6.5 yards per carry).

That’s the type of tone the running backs will need to set against Purdue on Saturday.

IU football: Week 14 odds and finishes

To the left of the marker: Indiana punter James Evans made a mistake on Caleb Downs’ punt return touchdown that helped OSU clinch the game. The punter was supposed to shoot the ball to the right side of the field, but it landed on the opposite sideline and Downs canceled a big return. He also lost a well-placed snap that resulted in a turnover on downs. Cignetti wants to see cleaner play on Saturday against a Purdue team that is only averaging 6.9 yards per return.

Maximum protection: Purdue’s best offensive weapon is 6-4, 240-pound tight end Max Klare. He leads the team in catches (46), yards (649) and touchdowns (four). He was particularly effective in the team’s last two games with 14 catches for 174 yards and two scores. He is a gifted athlete who considered a college career in football and baseball and even played quarterback in high school. The best tight end IU faced this season was Michigan’s Colston Loveland, who the Hoosiers largely kept in check.

Third rail: Purdue’s third-down defense is one of the worst in the country. The Boilermakers allow opposing teams to convert on 48.2% of their third down attempts. That’s the second-worst performance among Power Four teams (UCLA is the only team to do worse) and 130th out of 134 FBS teams. Indiana has converted 48.4% of its third-down attempts this season, but the Hoosiers have faced an increasing number of third-down and long situations in the last two games. Their average distance to third down was 8.8 yards against Michigan and 7.2 yards against Ohio State.

IU Football Stats of the Week

8.9: There are only two teams in the FBS that give up more passing yards per attempt (8.9) than Purdue. That’s in part because the Boilermakers are giving up a lot of explosive plays – they’ve given up 41 completions of 20 yards or more – while allowing opposing offenses to complete 65% of their pass attempts.

IU Football Quote of the Week

“It’s a well-oiled machine,” Purdue coach Ryan Walters said of IU’s success

Prediction: Indiana 49, Purdue 10

Relentless pressure.

Ohio State has shown that this is the best way to topple IU, but Purdue simply doesn’t have the talent to replicate this game plan.

The Boilermakers might have had a better chance if Nic Scourton hadn’t been moved. He was a game-wrecker in last year’s battle for the Old Oaken Bucket game – he had six quarterback pressures and two sacks – but ultimately transferred to Texas A&M, and his departure highlights the difference between the teams.

Indiana Football vs. Purdue Preview, Old Oaken Bucket Prediction

ByAmelia Pressman

By Amelia Pressman

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