On/Off stats reveal a blatant Julius Randle revelation

At the start of the season, the Minnesota Timberwolves haven’t quite found their rhythm with their new starting lineup. Since Julius Randle is a completely different player than Karl-Anthony Towns, integrating him into the rotation was probably a lot more difficult than you think.

It was also a challenge to balance other lineups. Many have been harsh critics of Chris Finch so far this year, but this problem was never going to be solved overnight. Ideally, things will be sorted out in time for the Wolves to still be able to return to the playoffs in April. They currently sit 11th in the Western Conference standings, out of play-in territory.

There have been several recurring issues that Minnesota has struggled with over the last five weeks, but getting Randle going was arguably one of the biggest. The style he plays doesn’t necessarily fit Rudy Gobert as seamlessly as Towns’, and there are some concerning numbers to accompany the eye test.

On/Off statistics allow us to accurately measure the effectiveness of specific players by measuring the team’s performance when they are on the field and when they are on the bench. Using data from the NBA’s official website, we can see that lineups with Randle and Gobert on the court record an offensive rating of 114.4, a defensive rating of 113, and a plus/minus rating of +1.4.

For those unfamiliar with this statistic, a high offensive rating indicates strong performance, while the same is true for a low defensive rating. In other matchups, Randle and Naz Reid have posted an offensive rating of 119.8 and a dismal defensive rating of 124.1, for a plus/minus of -4.4. Statistically, Naz Reid and Rudy Gobert were the Timberwolves’ best pairing overall, with an offensive rating of 111, a defensive rating of 105, and a plus/minus of +6.6.

This tells us that Randle struggled mightily defensively, which is consistent with what we saw on the hardwood. This is of course a worrying development, but not one that cannot be corrected.

Finch still has a big task ahead of him to make this team a top defensive team again. Obviously, finding lineups where Randle’s current lack of defense is less of an issue will be a priority. As the season progresses, it also seems likely that he will simply settle in and become more comfortable on that side of the ball as well.