Pick six previews: With the title game in sight, BYU will be on track to beat Houston

PROVO – After a 9-0 start to the season, BYU lost to Kansas and then suffered its second straight loss with a 28-23 loss at Arizona State on Saturday.

In front of a sellout crowd, Arizona State scored two touchdowns, successfully converted a surprise onside kick and then scored a third touchdown to build a 21-3 halftime lead.

All-America candidate Cam Skattebo was the story of the first half, finishing the game with 159 yards and three scores – one of which converted a penalty after autographing a fan’s football.

BYU made enough adjustments in the passing game at halftime and used more speed to get the score back to 28-23 in the final minute with the ball. Jake Retzlaff missed an open receiver down the sideline and threw an interception on the next play that appeared to end the game with a minute left.

But Arizona State was unable to fill the clock; and on fourth down, Sam Leavitt threw a pass into the stands to burn up the game’s final seconds. Most of the Sun Devils crowd spilled onto the field, assuming the clock read 0:00, even though the final play was under review.

The referees set back a second to allow BYU to take another shot from midfield. It took 15 minutes to clear the fans from the field and, surprisingly, no unsportsmanlike penalties were called against the home crowd or their belligerent head coach Kenny Dillingham.

BYU’s final Hail Mary attempt appeared to be intercepted, but missed the goal line by just two yards. Those additional 15 penalty yards could have been decisive, but as BYU head coach Kalani Sitake correctly noted, “it was the 59 minutes and 59 seconds before” that determined the outcome.

BYU hosts Houston on Saturday night (8:15 p.m. MST, ESPN) and will need some help from Kansas State (over Iowa State) or Arizona (over Arizona State) to make their finale a win-and-in scenario for the Big 12 -Title to make game.

Game grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Houston 48.1 (47th)
Season 2023: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Houston 33.0 (62nd)
2024 season: BYU 67.6 (15th) | Houston 39.0 (57th)

My Game Grader Formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts based on the strength of the opponent and is an important part of my evaluation before and during the season.

BYU has exceeded all preseason expectations with its 9-0 start and remains in the top 15 despite narrow losses to Kansas and Arizona State.

Houston ranks 14th in the 16-team Big 12 in Game Grader, but had three key league wins: TCU, Kansas State and Utah. Their season was completely one-sided – defense only – and they fired their offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay.

Houston with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings per game via Pick Six Previews)

Houston offense (2024): 15th of 16 Big 12 (15th passing, 10th rushing)
BYU defense (2024): 1st of 16 Big 12 (2nd passing, 7th rushing)

This will be Houston’s first game since firing Barbay. They struggled on that side of the ball all season, ranking second-worst for total offense and passing offense in my advanced stats. Houston is ahead of only Utah in these categories and sits last in the overall FBS rankings with 13.6 points per game.

Houston has thrown more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (9), and this is statistically one of the worst passing attacks in the country. They made a midseason quarterback change, and for some reason lightning struck twice for Zeon Chriss, rushing for 141 yards (15 of 18, 83%) and 103 yards (11 of 11, 100%) with touchdowns in the wins over TCU and Kansas State.

I don’t see a third explosion happening here, as BYU’s secondary and pass defense are in the top 10 in almost every passing category.

Tyler Batty has been a force in the trenches all season, linebacker Isaiah Glasker is quickly becoming a star and coordinator Jay Hill’s unit has forced 23 turnovers (seventh nationally). Look for another takeaway rush here to set up the offense with shorter fields.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings per game via Pick Six Previews)

BYU offense (2024): 7th of 16 Big 12 (11th passing, 6th rushing)
Houston Defense (2024): 4th of 16 Big 12 (9th passing, 5th rushing)

Retzlaff finished the game with 297 yards, Darius Lassiter was the receiver of 103 yards, Chase Roberts had big plays and all-rounder Keelan Marion scored two rushing touchdowns. After halftime adjustments by coordinator Aaron Roderick, the offense got going, and the fast pace helped.

But there were missed opportunities in another winnable game. Retzlaff threw two picks — one in the final minute, one play after he overthrew a wide-open, potentially game-winning score. Playing with a deficit led to a heavy switch from run to pass, and LJ Martin only scored nine runs in the entire game.

Houston has one of the most improved defenses in all of college football this season, ranking in the top five in the Big 12 in total defense and rushing defense.

Match prediction

Colorado’s surprising loss to Kansas gave BYU another opportunity. Instead of total chaos, all they need now is one of Iowa State (3-point favorite) or Arizona State (9-point favorite) to lose. And of course they have to win themselves.

BYU will get back on track Saturday night and control a weak opposing offense. I expect Kansas State to beat Iowa State, which would send BYU to Dallas to play for a Big 12 title and a playoff bid.

BYU 27 | Houston 10