Preview of the second round of the GAC Playoffs

November 27, 2024 12:10 p.m

The march to a repeat continues for the Harding Bisons. This week the Bisons will be on the road again, taking on Grand Valley State in Allendale, Michigan. It’s a rematch of the Super Region Three final from a season ago, when the Bisons defeated the Lakers in Searcy, Arkansas. 7-6, an absolute slobberknocker game.

Things might look a little different this time, starting with the weather. The forecast for Saturday is 28 degrees and some wind, making it even colder. Will that play a role here? Possible, but let’s first look at the personnel context.

Harding’s offense destroyed a really good Pitt State defense last week, posting over 500 rushing yards against the Gorillas. The bison are absolutely on fire right now, and have been all year long. But over the last two weeks, the Bisons haven’t had a negative game as both the Gorillas and Arkansas Tech failed to accumulate and attack for a loss. Grand Valley State’s defense was really good again this year, holding opponents to 4.2 yards per play and 13.7 points per game. The run defense was solid, giving up just 115 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. Again, they haven’t had an attack as fast as Harding’s this year, but facing the Bisons a season ago will certainly help game preparation. Third downs will be key in this game. The Lakers allow their opponents to convert on third down just 27 percent of the time, good for sixth in the country. The Bisons rank third in the nation, converting over 58 percent of the time. Of course, the key to third down is winning early downs and putting yourself in manageable situations. After the first quarter, the Bisons did this at will against Pitt State, converting 9 of 11 chances in the victory. I don’t claim to know the GVSU staff, but I do know that their linebackers are solid and defensive lineman Niles King (12 TFL, 8.5 sacks) can be a major disruptor. The defensive line isn’t the same as it was a year ago, but we’ll see how important that is as the Lakers still employ a lot of returnees from last year’s team.

On the other side of the ball, the question is who will be behind the Lakers’ center on Saturday. Usual starter Avery Moore didn’t play against UIndy last week and it’s unclear if he’ll be the guy this week. He is a senior and can make plays with his legs, carrying at least 12 balls in five games this season. There could be junior Ike Udengwu at quarterback again this week. Udengwu had a good game last week, throwing for 223 yards, two touchdowns and a single interception in the win. Overall, the Lakers have the potential to control the game on the ground if they can block the Bisons up front. GVSU averages 233 yards per game and five yards per carry while averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense. And the Lakers have been pretty consistent on the ground this year, finishing under 200 yards just four times this season. However, one of those events occurred last week when the Lakers rushed for 68 yards on 39 carries. A simple calculation shows that that’s less than two yards per carry. Not a good preparation before facing one of the best rush defenses in the country with the Bisons, who give up just 73 yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. If the Lakers can’t establish the run, I don’t think GVSU has a chance to beat Harding through the air. The Bisons have intercepted 16 passes this year and the Lakers are averaging just 168 yards per game and just eight yards per attempt. It’s not an explosive downfield attack, and I think the inability to stretch the field will play right into Harding’s hands.

There are a lot of questions surrounding the Lakers coming into this game. There are no questions on the Harding side, just boring predictability, both of which are good for the Bisons. Will the weather affect ball security for the Harding defenders? Possibly. And honestly, on paper, that’s perhaps the biggest unknown on the Harding side. But I trust the Harding defense immensely and I don’t think the Lakers do enough on offense to complement the positives of their defensive performance. Bison move on.

Harding 27, Grand Valley State 10